Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to
western Kentucky.
...West Texas to Western Kentucky...
Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region,
shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will
gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains
by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper
anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin
and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the
lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building
south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge
across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately
arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z.
This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust
convection through the period.
Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial
clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This
activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some
fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over
convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front.
Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately
ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which
should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor
exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around
6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization,
thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely
adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and
perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX.
..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024
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