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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Friday, August 2, 2024

SPC Aug 2, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1105 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD...AND IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorm gusts are possible today from
the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the Atlantic
Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and southeast
Arizona.

...Eastern States...
A broad upper trough is present over the eastern 1/3 of the CONUS
today, with slightly cooler mid-level temperatures and cyclonic flow
aloft throughout the region. Morning visible satellite imagery
shows strong heating across much of the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and
TN Valley regions. This combined with a very moist surface air mass
will yield steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE later
today, with several clusters of thunderstorms expected. Winds aloft
are relatively weak, and mid-level lapse rates are not particularly
steep. This suggests the bulk of this activity will be relatively
disorganized. Nevertheless, given the coverage of afternoon
thunderstorms and the pervasive hot/humid conditions, there is a
widespread risk of gusty or occasionally damaging wind gusts this
afternoon and early evening. Two areas of somewhat greater wind
damage potential are from New York City region into northern VA, and
from northern MS/AL into east TN. Both areas will be monitored and
re-considered for upgrade to SLGT risk at 20z.

...CO/WY/KS/NE...
Morning model solutions continue to show consensus of the
development of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon across parts
of northeast CO/southeast WY. These storms will spread eastward
into western NE/KS this evening. This region is beneath the upper
ridge, so forcing mechanisms and vertical shear are weak. However,
very steep low and mid-level lapse rates would promote a risk of
hail in the strongest updrafts. Also, model guidance shows some
potential for outflow organization and isolated gusty/damaging
winds.

...Southeast AZ...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon over
the higher terrain of southeast AZ, in a deeply mixed and moderately
unstable environment. Southeasterly steering flow is not
particularly strong, but may be sufficient to move the storms off
the mountains through the evening, with a risk of locally damaging
wind gusts.

..Hart/Lyons.. 08/02/2024


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


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