Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Fri Aug 02 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS...MID-ATLANTIC...CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with strong winds will be possible today
from the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians eastward to the
Atlantic Seaboard, and in parts of the central High Plains and
southeast Arizona.
...Ohio Valley and Southern Appalachians Eastward to Atlantic
Seaboard...
An upper-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move
eastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today. Ahead of the
cold front, surface dewpoints will be from the upper 60s to the mid
70s F in most areas. As surface temperatures warm, scattered
thunderstorm development is expected over a large area. RAP forecast
soundings across the moist airmass suggest that lapse rates will
become steep in the 0-3 km layer. This will coincide with 0-6 km
shear generally around 20 knots or less. This should favor pulse
storm development, with a potential for isolated severe wind gusts.
The threat should be concentrated mainly in the mid to late
afternoon.
...Central High Plains...
An upper-level ridge will be in place across the Rockies, as
northwest mid-level flow remains over much of the Great Plains. An
axis of moderate instability is forecast to develop from the western
Texas Panhandle northward into the central High Plains, where MLCAPE
could peak in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. Although large-scale
ascent will be weak, thunderstorms will develop in the higher
terrain, with additional more isolated storms forming in the central
High Plains. Forecast soundings along the instability axis this
afternoon show very steep low-level lapse rates and 0-6 km shear in
the 25 to 30 knot range. This should be enough deep-layer shear for
a marginal severe threat. A few strong wind gusts and hail will be
possible.
...Southeast Arizona...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms, associated with the monsoon,
will develop today across much of the Desert Southwest. The greatest
potential for severe winds will be across southeast Arizona, where
moderate instability is forecast to coincide with steep low to
mid-level lapse rates. As cells develop in the early afternoon, a
few marginally severe wind gusts will be possible.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 08/02/2024
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