Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0727 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Valid 061300Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over portions of the
central Great Plains this afternoon into this evening. Large to
very large hail and severe gusts are the primary hazards.
...Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
A mid-level disturbance, embedded within a belt of cyclonic
mid-level flow centered over the Upper Midwest, will move
southeastward from the western Dakotas/WY into eastern SD/NE today.
At the surface, a weak area of low pressure will migrate slowly
eastward from northeast CO into NE as a cold front pushes southeast
across the central High Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of
moderate instability will likely be in place from western Kansas
northeastward into central and eastern Nebraska. Convection is
first expected to develop to the north of the surface low in
north-central Nebraska, with cell coverage gradually expanding
southwestward into western Kansas. Several clusters of storms are
expected to persist into the early to mid evening along the
instability corridor from west-central Kansas into central eastern
Nebraska.
Relatively steep 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km and a wind
profile supporting storm organization, will potentially favor a
couple of supercells capable of large to very large hail.
Relatively quick upscale growth into one or two linear clusters is
expected towards early evening. Severe gusts will likely become
more prevalent during this evolution towards more outflow-dominant
storms.
Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind
the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern
South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker
instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal
severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of
the southern High Plains. If confidence can increase on the
development/placement of a linear cluster across northwest TX by
early this evening, a focused area of perhaps locally greater threat
for severe gusts may occur over parts of the South Plains/Caprock
vicinity in TX. Nonetheless, weaker large-scale ascent in the
southern High Plains should limit overall storm coverage/intensity.
...Northeast...
The 06/00z MPAS-HT-NSSL model run seemed to reasonably depict storm
development earlier this morning over southeast NY moving into CT.
In wake of this activity as it moves northeast and dissipates later
this morning, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop from the lower Hudson Valley into upstate NY and
farther northeast into southern ME. A mid-level vorticity lobe over
southwestern ON and near Lake Erie this morning, will move northeast
into the St. Lawrence Valley later today. Ample deep-layer shear
and moderate buoyancy will support organized cells despite weak
large-scale forcing for ascent. Localized 50-60 mph gusts capable
of wind damage are possible with the stronger storms this afternoon
into the early evening.
..Smith/Bentley.. 07/06/2024
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