Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sat Jul 06 2024
Valid 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and severe wind gusts, are expected today from the southern High
Plains northeastward into the Upper Midwest. The greatest severe
threat will likely be in the central Plains, where hailstones
greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible.
...Great Plains/Upper Midwest...
A shortwave trough within a belt of stronger mid-level flow, will
move eastward across the central Plains today. At the surface, an
associated low will move from southwestern Nebraska into northern
Kansas, as a cold front to the west advances across the central
Plains. By afternoon, several pockets of moderate instability will
likely be in place from western Kansas northeastward into central
and eastern Nebraska. Convection is first expected to develop to the
north of the surface low in north-central Nebraska, with cell
coverage gradually expanding southwestward into western Kansas.
Several clusters of storms are expected to persist into the early to
mid evening along the instability corridor from west-central Kansas
into central eastern Nebraska.
RAP forecast soundings along and near the instability axis during
the late afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak in the 1500 to 2500
J/kg range. This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot
range, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates from 7 to 8 C/km should be
favorable for supercells with large hail. The greatest potential for
supercells is expected from northwest Kansas into central Nebraska,
where forecast soundings have the most favorable thermodynamic
environment. Within this area, the strongest of cells could produce
hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter. The hail threat
should be greatest during the late afternoon as instability
maximizes across the central Plains. The potential for hail and
severe wind gusts will likely continue into the early to mid
evening, as a large cluster of storms develops and moves
east-southeastward across the central Plains.
Further west, isolated thunderstorms will also be possible behind
the front from the central High Plains northeastward into southern
South Dakota. In this area, lower surface dewpoints and weaker
instability should keep any severe threat marginal. A marginal
severe threat is also expected to develop southward across parts of
the southern High Plains. Weaker large-scale ascent in the southern
High Plains should keep cells more widely spaced, limiting severe
threat coverage.
..Broyles/Supinie.. 07/06/2024
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