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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Monday, July 22, 2024

SPC Jul 22, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024

Valid 221630Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION....AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
early evening over portions of the mid-Atlantic region, as well as
western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic states...
A narrow ribbon of slightly enhanced southwesterly 500-mb flow will
remain across NC/Delmarva to the southeast of a broad/weak mid-level
trough centered over the Great Lakes southwestward through the
Ozarks. Although large-scale forcing will be modest, a seasonably
moist airmass (14-16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios per 12
UTC area raobs) will gradually destabilize through the mid
afternoon. Midday visible satellite imagery shows the initial
stages of a building cumulus field across the Carolinas northward
into eastern VA. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this afternoon within the moderately unstable
airmass. Some strengthening in south-southwesterly 850-mb flow is
progged by models later this afternoon into the early evening. A
few of the stronger storms may pose a localized risk for damaging
gusts (45-60 mph). If a transient supercell can develop (primarily
21-01z), a brief tornado is possible. This activity will likely
diminish by mid-late evening owing to nocturnal stabilization.

...Western AZ/lower CO River Valley...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this
afternoon/evening as surface temperatures soar into the 100s.
Although flow will be weak due to proximity to the mid- to
upper-level ridge, large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions
(around 50 deg F) will favor evaporative cooled downdrafts with the
more robust thunderstorm cores. A few severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
possible before this activity wanes by mid evening.

...Southeast New England...
Model guidance indicates increased shower/thunderstorm potential
late tonight (08-12 UTC) as a strengthening LLJ shifts northeastward
from the Mid-Atlantic coast to near the continental shelf/deep
Atlantic waters off the southeast New England coast. The latest
models generally indicate meager to no surface-based buoyancy
penetrating the coast, thus precluding low-severe probabilities this
outlook update.

..Smith/Barnes.. 07/22/2024


Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC


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