LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION....AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
early evening over portions of the mid-Atlantic region, as well as
western Arizona to the lower Colorado River Valley.
...Mid-Atlantic states...
A narrow ribbon of slightly enhanced southwesterly 500-mb flow will
remain across NC/Delmarva to the southeast of a broad/weak mid-level
trough centered over the Great Lakes southwestward through the
Ozarks. Although large-scale forcing will be modest, a seasonably
moist airmass (14-16 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios per 12
UTC area raobs) will gradually destabilize through the mid
afternoon. Midday visible satellite imagery shows the initial
stages of a building cumulus field across the Carolinas northward
into eastern VA. Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop this afternoon within the moderately unstable
airmass. Some strengthening in south-southwesterly 850-mb flow is
progged by models later this afternoon into the early evening. A
few of the stronger storms may pose a localized risk for damaging
gusts (45-60 mph). If a transient supercell can develop (primarily
21-01z), a brief tornado is possible. This activity will likely
diminish by mid-late evening owing to nocturnal stabilization.
...Western AZ/lower CO River Valley...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this
afternoon/evening as surface temperatures soar into the 100s.
Although flow will be weak due to proximity to the mid- to
upper-level ridge, large surface temperature-dewpoint depressions
(around 50 deg F) will favor evaporative cooled downdrafts with the
more robust thunderstorm cores. A few severe gusts (60-70 mph) are
possible before this activity wanes by mid evening.
...Southeast New England...
Model guidance indicates increased shower/thunderstorm potential
late tonight (08-12 UTC) as a strengthening LLJ shifts northeastward
from the Mid-Atlantic coast to near the continental shelf/deep
Atlantic waters off the southeast New England coast. The latest
models generally indicate meager to no surface-based buoyancy
penetrating the coast, thus precluding low-severe probabilities this
outlook update.
..Smith/Barnes.. 07/22/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
Monday, July 22, 2024
SPC Jul 22, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)