Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 22 2024
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND WESTERN ARIZONA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the
mid-Atlantic region, and western Arizona on Monday.
...Synopsis...
A broad upper-level trough will remain in place from the Great Lakes
southwest into northern Texas on Monday, while an embedded impulse
within the flow around the trough moves across the mid-Atlantic
states. Another impulse will move southeast across the upper Midwest
and northern Great Lakes, while an upper-level anticyclone remains
anchored in the vicinity of the southern Great Basin.
...Mid-Atlantic...
A very moist air mass will be remain in place across the region,
characterized by PW values in excess of 2 inches. As the embedded
mid-level impulse lifts northeast across the TN Valley and
mid-Atlantic region during the day, lower/mid-level wind fields will
strengthen and result in 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear by afternoon.
Despite poor lapse rates, 70s dew points will contribute to pockets
of moderate buoyancy. Thunderstorms should redevelop during the
afternoon, aided by ascent with the approaching impulse. NAM/RAP
forecast soundings Monday afternoon suggest notable low-level
hodograph curvature, suggesting some potential for a tornado or two
across northeast NC and eastern VA, especially with any cells that
remain relatively discrete.
...Western AZ Vicinity...
Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Mogollon Rim Monday
afternoon, with hi-res guidance depicting the greatest coverage
across western AZ. Northeast mid-level flow of 15-20 kts should be
sufficient for storms to move into lower elevations characterized by
a hot/well-mixed boundary layer. Merging outflows should result in
clusters of storms with the potential for strong to severe gusts.
...Upper Midwest...
Thunderstorms should re-develop along a southward-moving cold front,
reinforced by convective outflows, across central/northern MN and
northwest WI during the day, with the potential for gusty winds and
perhaps small hail. Overall thunderstorm intensity should be
tempered by relatively weak shear, precluding severe probabilities
with this outlook.
..Bunting/Lyons.. 07/22/2024
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