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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER

Saturday, July 20, 2024

SPC Jul 20, 2024 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from
mid-afternoon to evening.

...20Z Update...
Minimal changes were made to the outlook with this update, as the
previous forecast remains on track. Scattered multicell
thunderstorms (with occasional/transient supercell structures) will
continue spreading east-northeastward across the Southeast this
afternoon. Given a hot/moist boundary layer and around 2 inch PW
extending from northeast FL northward into southeast VA, sporadic
damaging winds (generally 50-60 mph) will be possible.

Farther west, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will
gradually increase in coverage across the central and southern High
Plains this afternoon, with isolated large hail and severe gusts
possible with the strongest storms. Reference forthcoming MCD 1687
for additional details.

Over portions southern AZ, temperatures have climbed into the
100-105 F range amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. While weak
midlevel flow will limit storm longevity/organization, occasional
strong to locally severe gusts cannot be ruled out this afternoon.

..Weinman/Smith.. 07/20/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024/

...Southeast...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern
Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream
to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the
period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist
airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s
deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible
satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and
to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable
boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show
PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt).
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as
convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the
buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany
the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable
of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely
scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening.

...Central and southern High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from
southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee
trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries
from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and
hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity
diminishes by mid to late evening.


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