Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1113 AM CDT Sat Jul 20 2024
Valid 201630Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of
the Southeast and central to southern High Plains, mainly from
mid-afternoon to evening.
...Southeast...
Water-vapor imagery late this morning shows a mid-level shortwave
trough moving slowly east across KY/TN/AL towards the southern
Appalachians. A mid-level anticyclone located over the Gulf Stream
to the east of the Southeast U.S. will move little during the
period. Late morning surface analysis indicates a very moist
airmass resides over the coastal plains of GA/Carolinas with mid 70s
deg F dewpoints. Ample heating via mostly sunny skies (per visible
satellite data) east of a line from Macon, GA to Columbia, SC, and
to the Research Triangle, will result in a moderately unstable
boundary layer by early to mid afternoon. Forecast soundings show
PW around 2 to 2.25 inches and moderate effective shear (20-30 kt).
Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop in several clusters as
convective temperatures are breached by early afternoon. Given the
buoyant/high PW environment, water-loaded downdrafts will accompany
the stronger thunderstorm cores. Isolated wet microbursts capable
of 45-60 mph gusts will potentially result in isolated to widely
scattered wind damage this afternoon and early evening.
...Central and southern High Plains...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon along the Front Range/Sangre de Cristo corridor from
southeastern WY to NM, as well as over the Raton Mesa, near the lee
trough, and along leftover outflow/differential-heating boundaries
from prior overnight/morning convection. Isolated severe gusts and
hail are possible with the stronger storms before this activity
diminishes by mid to late evening.
..Smith/Jirak.. 07/20/2024
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