Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024
Valid 121630Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind and hail will be possible this afternoon from
the Ozarks to lower Ohio Valley, and over the northern and central
Great Plains from late afternoon into tonight.
...Northern Plains...
Broad diffluent northwesterly mid-level flow is present today across
the northern Plains states. Full sunshine over the region will
result in hot surface temperatures and inverted-v thermodynamic
profiles from eastern MT/WY into the western Dakotas. Most morning
CAM solutions suggest scattered high-based thunderstorm development
by late afternoon, with activity spreading slowly eastward through
the evening. Locally gusty/damaging winds are the main concern with
these storms. Greater instability exists farther east in ND/SD/NE
but will remain capped in most areas, unless congealing outflow from
the west can intercept the higher theta-e air with some risk of
wind/hail in the strongest cells.
...Southern MO/IL...
Morning visible satellite imagery shows a remnant MCV over southern
MO tracking slowly eastward. Ample low-level moisture and CAPE
ahead of this system will likely result in scattered afternoon
thunderstorms. Winds aloft are relatively weak, and convection
should remain rather disorganized. However, the strongest storms
could pose a risk of locally gusty winds.
..Hart/Barnes.. 07/12/2024
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