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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

ARLINGTON HEIGHTS WEATHER
O'Hare International Airport KORD (Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK (Arlington Heights North)

Thursday, July 11, 2024

SPC Jul 12, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook


Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
SOUTH AZ AND SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST MO...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic severe gusts are possible over southern Arizona through
about dusk. Isolated large hail and locally damaging winds are
possible over southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri this evening.

...Southern AZ...
With surface temperature-dew point spreads around 60 F, multiple
convective outflows have been surging west and south across the
I-10/19 corridors in southeast AZ. Weak deep-layer shear remains
noted in EMX VWP data and further confirmed by the 00Z TUS sounding
with mid-level flow holding from 15-20 kts. This has yielded a more
disorganized and variable outflow direction, although some loose
clustering appears to have occurred in the greater Tucson vicinity.
This activity should spread southwest into the south-central AZ
border area during the next couple hours with a continued risk for
sporadic severe gusts.

...Southeast KS and southwest MO...
Along a weak, quasi-stationary front, isolated thunderstorms are
ongoing over southeast KS into southwest MO. A vertically veering
wind profile, supported by low-level southerlies beneath modest
mid-level northwesterlies, will sustain occasional updraft rotation
with slow-moving discrete cells. With MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, as
sampled by the 00Z TOP sounding, isolated large hail and locally
strong gusts will remain possible. A slight increase in low-level
flow this evening may yield convection persisting after dusk,
although tending to become elevated and develop northeast of the
surface front with time. The overall severe threat should wane
overnight.

...Central High Plains to northern Great Plains...
High-based, lower-topped convection has struggled on the western
periphery of the Great Plains buoyancy plume amid moderate
mid/upper-level northwest flow. While a localized strong to
marginally severe wind gust may be possible over the next hour or
so, the unconditional probability of occurrence appears less than 5
percent.

..Grams.. 07/12/2024


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