Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe gusts are possible across
southeast Arizona between 3-8 PM MST.
...Southeast AZ...
Northeasterly mid-level flow is consistently progged to strengthen,
southeast of a stout anticyclone over the southern Great Basin. This
combined with slightly greater lower-level moisture/PW should yield
a conditionally favorable threat for severe wind gusts centered on
the greater Tucson vicinity. 00Z HREF guidance suggests at least
scattered thunderstorm development should occur over parts of the
Mogollon Rim and higher terrain of southeast AZ. This activity
should overspread parts of the I-10/19 corridors into the lower
deserts during the late afternoon to early evening. Whether it can
congeal into a severe wind/haboob-producing MCS is unclear, but a
series of dry microbursts capable of widely scattered severe wind
gusts is plausible.
...Central High Plains to the northern Great Plains...
In the mid-levels, between a stout anticyclone over the southern
Great Basin and a low-amplitude shortwave trough in the southwest
Great Lakes region, a belt of moderate northwesterly flow is
anticipated at peak heating. Modest boundary-layer moisture will be
the main limiting factor for coverage/intensity, but should be
adequate for at least isolated thunderstorms along a weak surface
trough. A rather deeply mixed thermodynamic profile should support
sporadic severe wind gusts as the main threat. But isolated severe
hail will be possible in the western SD/NE vicinity where the
mid/upper-level wind profile favors transient updraft rotation in
conjunction with somewhat greater buoyancy.
...IN to southeast KS...
Sporadic strong storms may briefly approach marginal severe
thresholds during the late afternoon through sunset. Overall threat
appears too localized to warrant a level 1-MRGL risk.
..Grams/Dean.. 07/11/2024
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