Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms, associated with a tornado and isolated wind-damage
threat, are expected today across parts of the Northeast. The
greatest tornado risk will be over southwest and south-central New
York. An isolated wind-damage threat is also expected to develop
across parts of New Mexico and west Texas.
...Northeast...
The remnants of Beryl will move east-northeastward into the lower
Great Lakes and central Appalachians today, as an upper-level trough
moves across the Great Lakes region. At the surface, a low will move
into western New York, as a warm front advances slowly northward
into west-central and central New York. It appears that a band of
cells will move across southern and central New York this morning,
with another band forming in the afternoon and moving through the
same general area.
Surface winds near and just to the south of the front will be backed
toward the east-southeast, enhancing directional shear in the
boundary layer. This is evident on the RAP forecast sounding at 20Z
for Syracuse, NY, which has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around
350 m2/s2. This forecast sounding also has 0-6 km shear near 50
knots with a substantial amount of speed shear in the low to
mid-levels. MLCAPE just to the south of the warm front is forecast
to be in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range with low-level lapse rates
peaking near 7 C/km. This environment will likely be favorable for
supercells and tornadoes. The greatest tornado threat will likely be
within an east-to-west corridor from just southeast of Buffalo to
just west of Albany. The tornado threat is expected to be maximized
in the 18Z to 00Z temporal window.
The stronger thunderstorms near and to the south of the warm front
will also likely have a wind-damage threat. By late afternoon,
convection is forecast to develop southward along a pre-frontal
trough from central Pennsylvania into central Virginia. These storms
could be associated with isolated severe gusts.
...New Mexico/West Texas...
A relatively moist airmass will be in place today across much of
southern and central New Mexico, where surface dewpoints will likely
range from the upper 40s to the mid 50s F. As surface temperatures
warm, scattered thunderstorms will first develop in the mountains,
and then later in the lower elevations. Forecast soundings across
southern and central New Mexico suggest that SBCAPE will peak in the
800 to 1200 J/kg range. The instability, along with nearly dry
adiabatic temperature profiles, will support a potential for
marginally severe gusts.
..Broyles/Thornton.. 07/10/2024
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