Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0741 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
GA/SC...THE NORTHERN PLAINS...AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...GA/SC...
Morning surface analysis shows a surface cold front sagging slowly
southward across central GA and far southern SC. A moist low-level
airmass is present in vicinity of the boundary, where substantial
daytime heating will lead to a corridor of moderate CAPE by early
afternoon. Most model guidance is in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will form along or just behind the front, tracking
eastward and offshore by early evening. Low-level winds are
strongly veered and rather weak, but fast westerly flow aloft will
promote a few organized/supercell storms capable of damaging winds
and hail.
...WY/NE/Dakotas...
Water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough over
western MT. This feature will track eastward today, with an
associated surface boundary becoming established from western ND
into eastern WY. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form along
this boundary in a relatively moist and moderately unstable
environment. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse rates,
veering low-level wind fields, and strong effective shear supportive
of supercell storms capable large hail and damaging winds. A
tornado or two is possible. Other more isolated but intense cells
may form in the deeply-mixed boundary layer farther west across
northern WY as well.
...West TX...
A slow-moving southern stream shortwave trough over southern NM will
result in strengthening westerly mid-level winds across parts of
West TX today. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along a
southeastward moving surface front over eastern NM by mid-afternoon
and track across West TX through the evening. Steep low and
mid-level lapse rates coupled with rather strong winds aloft will
pose a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and hail in the strongest
cells. Given the consistent signal in recent CAM solutions, have
added a small SLGT for this scenario.
..Hart/Bentley.. 06/10/2024
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