Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected across parts of the central and northern High Plains.
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are also expected across
portions of the Southeast where hail/wind are possible.
...Northern/Central High Plains...
Well-defined short-wave trough is currently located over eastern
WA/OR, shifting east in line with late-evening model guidance. This
feature is forecast to advance into western MT by 12z then shift
into central MT/northwest WY by 18z before progressing into the
western Dakotas by early evening. Primary LLJ response will be
across western ND into southeast SK, though some increase is
expected into western NE during the evening. Associated surface
front will surge across much of MT by 18z, arcing back across
northwest WY. Current thinking is convection will develop along this
boundary fairly early with NAM sounding for BYG at 18z exhibiting
negligible CINH and MLCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg. Big Horn
Mountains may be a focus for supercell initiation, though additional
development is likely east of the mountains along/near the front
over northeast WY. This activity will spread east toward the Black
Hills region in response to the progressive short wave. Large hail
and damaging winds are the main threats, though a brief tornado can
not be ruled out.
...Southeast...
Seasonally deep upper trough will hold across the eastern US through
the day1 period. This flow regime will ensure modest-strong 500mb
northwesterly flow across the southern Appalachians toward coastal
SC/GA. Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating
will be noted across southern AL/GA where surface temperatures are
expected to rise into the lower 90s by 19z. This will effectively
remove inhibition as convective temperatures are breached. Latest
HREF guidance is very aggressive developing thunderstorms within
this veered low-level flow along the frontal zone. Strong
surface-6km bulk shear favors supercells and large hail/damaging
winds are possible. In addition, there is some low risk for a brief
tornado or two where coastal boundaries are involved.
...Southern High Plains...
Scattered-numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop once again
across the southern High Plains along the front side of a weak upper
ridge. Early this morning, a multifaceted complex of storms is
ongoing from northeast NM, arcing across the TX South Plains into
the Edwards Plateau. An MCV may evolve from this complex which will
drift southeast during the day. There is some concern that robust
convection may ultimately evolve where adequate boundary-layer
heating occurs. At this time there is a bit too much uncertainty
regarding the convective debris/remnant MCS activity to introduce a
SLGT risk, but this may ultimately be warranted in later outlooks.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/10/2024
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