Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Valid 230100Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO
THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from
central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western
Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight
from the Mid-South to the Northeast.
...01Z Update...
Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple
clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the
Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe
wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR
and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will
diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to
north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level
1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA.
Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely
subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold
front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has
held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the
primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the
front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may
occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into
western PA.
Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should
persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the
Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the
more sustained updrafts.
..Grams.. 05/23/2024
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