Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024
Valid 222000Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO ARKANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
Within a long swath of severe-thunderstorm potential from central
Texas to the Lower Great Lakes, the greatest concentration of severe
weather (mainly large hail and damaging wind) should be across parts
of central Texas to central Arkansas. A few tornadoes are also
possible.
The existing day 1 outlook remains on track and little change was
needed at 20Z.
Large supercells are currently forming along the front across
central Texas, with giant hail possible in this extremely unstable
and deep-sheared environment.
To the east corridors of damaging wind and hail may develop with
storms extending from northeast TX into TN. For more information see
mesoscale discussions 893 and 894.
..Jewell.. 05/22/2024
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed May 22 2024/
...Southeast OK/AR/TN...
A band of strong/severe thunderstorms currently extends from
southeast OK into northwest AR, ahead of a surface cold front.
These storms will track eastward today across AR, with new storms
forming in the moist and moderately unstable air mass farther east.
Activity will spread into west/middle TN this afternoon, with a
continued risk of hail and damaging wind gusts.
...Central/East TX...
The ongoing forecast remains valid, with few changes made this
update cycle. A very moist surface air mass is present today over
central TX, with widespread dewpoints in the 70s. Multiple subtle
southern-stream shortwave troughs may affect this region this
afternoon, leading to intense thunderstorm development from
northwest into west-central TX. Strong deep-layer shear and fast
westerly flow aloft will promote supercells capable of very large
hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. As this activity tracks
southeastward, congealing outflow will increase the risk of
corridors of damaging wind gusts.
...Upper OH Valley into MD/PA/NY...
Relatively fast southwesterly mid/upper level flow is present today
over much of the northeast quadrant of the US, with a cold front
moving across the OH Valley. Dewpoints in the 60s, strong daytime
heating, and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates will yield
afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg. Model guidance is in
agreement that scattered clusters of thunderstorms will form across
the region later today, with parameters favoring a risk of damaging
winds and some hail in the strongest cells.
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