Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0106 AM CDT Mon Apr 01 2024
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE OZARKS AND INTO FAR WESTERN INDIANA....
...SUMMARY...
Severe weather is expected to occur over a broad region from the
southern Plains, the Ozarks, portions of the Ohio Valley, and into a
small part of the Mid-Atlantic. Large to very large hail, damaging
winds, and tornadoes (some strong) are possible. The severe threat
will peak this afternoon/evening in the southern Plains with the
greatest threat for the Ohio Valley vicinity being the
evening/overnight period.
...Synopsis...
A large, positively tilted upper-level trough will shift east from
the Southwest to the central Plains today. A mid-level shortwave
trough, currently rounding the base of the large scale trough, will
advance quickly northeast through the day today within a strong
mid-level jet. This strong flow will overspread a broad, very moist
warm sector and lead to severe weather across a large portion of the
Southern Plains into the Midwest.
A surface low is present across eastern Colorado this morning with a
stationary front extending eastward across Kansas and Missouri and
into the Ohio Valley. This surface low will drift slowly east
through the day and the front is expected to lift north across
Missouri as a warm front during the afternoon.
...North Texas, central and eastern Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, and
the Ozarks...
Mid 60s dewpoints are expected across much of the warm sector east
of the dryline by mid-day today with temperatures warming into the
70s to low 80s. Moderate to strong instability is expected to
develop by the time ascent associated with the approaching trough
overspreads the dryline. Once this occurs, expect rapid storm
development along the dryline from southern Kansas to north Texas.
Very strong shear, and mostly straight hodographs will support
splitting supercells initially capable of large to potentially giant
hail across a broad region from southwest Missouri to north Texas.
Storm evolution off the dryline is still somewhat uncertain. Some
guidance depicts more discrete development off the dryline and the
potential for multiple rounds of supercells, while other CAM
guidance waits until closer to 00Z to convect and leads to upscale
growth and significant storm interaction within the first few hours.
This evolution will have a significant impact on the longevity of
the giant hail threat, but even with a messy storm mode, very large
hail will remain a threat.
Low-level shear is expected to be very weak for much of the day,
which will limit the tornado threat. However, by the evening, the
low-level jet is expected to strengthen with the ejecting wave and
low-level shear will improve. The most favorable hodographs are
expected across northeast Oklahoma into southeast Kansas and
southwest/central Missouri in a region where mature supercells will
likely be ongoing. Therefore, a more favorable period for tornadoes
and potentially strong tornadoes may exist from 23-03Z as the
low-level shear improves.
...Eastern Missouri into southern Illinois...
At least isolated supercells are expected to develop along the warm
front from northern Missouri into central Illinois this afternoon
and evening. Strong instability and very strong shear will support
large to very large hail. In addition, storm motion is expected to
be parallel to the surface front. Therefore, any supercells which
can latch onto the warm front will have a higher tornado threat.
However, more isolated storm coverage and uncertainty regarding
storm evolution preclude higher tornado probabilities in this
region.
Later in the evening and into the overnight hours, storms from the
west will move into the region with a threat for large hail, a few
tornadoes, and severe wind gusts.
...Ohio River Vicinity...
Supercells from Illinois may continue east along the warm front into
the evening across southern Indiana and potentially southern Ohio.
Additional storms may also develop along this frontal zone with a
primary threat of large hail. Weaker instability/shear should limit
the overall threat from these storms compared to farther west.
However, moderate instability and strong shear will support a threat
for large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado.
Overnight, a cluster of storms is expected to approach from the
west. The overnight environment will continue to support a severe
threat with 1500 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear in excess of 50
knots. There is still considerable uncertainty how this cluster will
evolve. A cluster of supercells would pose a threat for all severe
weather hazards, while a more organized MCS may support a greater
severe wind and QLCS tornado threat.
...Central Texas...
Strong instability is expected to develop ahead of a dryline across
central Texas this afternoon. Confluence along the dryline and weak
height falls should provide ample support for isolated to scattered
storm development. Any storms which develop will be capable of very
large to giant hail, given very strong instability and shear an
expected supercellular storm mode.
..Bentley/Darrow.. 04/01/2024
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