Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Sun Mar 31 2024
Valid 311200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along a corridor from northern
Missouri into the Ohio Valley today. Some of this activity has the
potential to produce large hail and perhaps a few damaging gusts.
...Northern MO into the Ohio Valley...
Large-scale upper pattern will not change appreciably during the
day1 period. Ridging will dominate much of the eastern US as
troughing holds across the southwestern parts of the country. This
flow regime will, however, allow a notable synoptic front to advance
a bit north, from near the OH River to around I70 by the end of the
period. PW has gradually risen across the warm sector with one-inch
values fairly common along/just south of the boundary. Latest
surface data suggests the leading edge of 60F dew points are
advancing north across OK and will soon spread into southeast KS/
southwest MO. Deep southwesterly flow will permit additional
boundary-layer moistening across MO into the lower OH Valley through
the period.
With weak midlevel height rises expected, convective initiation will
likely be significantly influenced by low-level warm advection along
the nose of the LLJ. This may result in episodic bouts of robust
convection along/near the frontal zone. Early this morning,
scattered thunderstorms continue from southern IN/northern KY into
southern WV. This activity should spread southeast toward the
southern middle Atlantic later today. Renewed convection is expected
late this morning/early this afternoon across northern MO near the
front, where warm advection will be focused. This activity should
then spread/develop downstream into IL/IN. Forecast soundings
suggest any convection north of the boundary will be elevated and
should pose mostly a hail threat as steep lapse rates will be
maintained along this corridor. Wind profiles suggest supercells are
possible, though some clustering is likely, especially along the
cool side of the boundary. The greatest risk for damaging winds will
be noted with storms that evolve near/south of the wind shift.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/31/2024
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