Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 AM CDT Thu Mar 28 2024
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected.
...Discussion...
Offshore flow will dominate the Gulf/Atlantic Coasts during the day1
period as the primary synoptic front advances east ahead of a
pronounced upper trough. Early in the period, surface wind shift
will extend from the NC Outer Banks region, southwest across the
central FL Peninsula. Scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
along this boundary, aided in part by large-scale forcing ahead of
the upper trough. While strong deep-layer flow/shear will be noted,
poor lapse rates and weak buoyancy do not appear conducive for
particularly robust updrafts along the advancing wind shift.
Upstream across the western US, very cold midlevel temperatures will
overspread the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies/northern Great
Basin. 500mb jet is forecast to sag south across CA/NV/UT into the
Four Corners region during the latter half of the period. As a
result, very steep lapse rates will be generated north of the jet,
such that weak buoyancy is expected to support scattered convection.
Given the cold profiles, some risk for thunderstorms will be noted,
as low-topped convection could attain heights necessary for
lightning discharge.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/28/2024
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