Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across north
Florida into the coastal plain of South Carolina, and also across
parts of north-central Texas. Isolated hail and damaging winds
should be the main hazards for both areas.
...Florida into the Carolinas...
A core of a strong belt of southwesterly mid-level flow is forecast
to gradually overspread a pre-frontal region from the Carolinas into
north FL during the day. Coincident with the strengthening flow, a
large-scale trough initially over TX, will pivot east and reach AL
by early Thursday morning. Early-day convection and related
cloudiness will likely delay stronger heating, but cloud breaks and
a cessation of precip will lead to weak to locally moderate
destabilization during peak heating. Strengthening flow fields will
support storm organization with any robust updrafts. Models
continue to show episodic convection throughout the day, which lends
some uncertainty when the potential for stronger storms will occur.
Isolated damaging gusts (peaking in the 50-65 mph range) and severe
hail (1.0-1.5 inches in diameter) are possible. The risk for
stronger storms may persist into the late evening near the Carolina
coast.
...Parts of north into central TX...
Despite generally meager low-level moisture across the region, cold
temperatures aloft (500 mb temperatures around -25C) in the vicinity
of the mid-level trough axis, will support weak buoyancy (250-750
J/kg MLCAPE) from north into central TX. Isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon.
Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for some storm organization, and
a southeastward-moving supercell or two will be possible. Hail may
be the most likely hazard, given the cold temperature profiles, but
steep lapse rates could also support isolated severe gusts.
..Smith/Squitieri.. 03/27/2024
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