Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of south Florida and the Keys, along with eastern North Carolina/the
Outer Banks.
...Discussion...
Southern-stream short-wave trough should advance across the
southeastern US during the day, with the primary corridor of
large-scale forcing expected to shift off the southeast Atlantic
Coast by late afternoon. Early in the period, strong LLJ will focus
over the middle Atlantic from eastern NC into eastern VA. This
feature will translate rapidly downstream into southern New England
during the afternoon, in response to a northern-stream short-wave
trough over NY. Otherwise, westerly deep-layer flow is expected
across prefrontal portions of the southern FL Peninsula through peak
heating.
Early this morning, considerable amount of convection is observed
within the warm-advection zone from off the Carolina Coast into the
southern middle Atlantic. While onshore flow is noted across the
coastal Carolinas, any noteworthy buoyancy remains offshore where
lightning is concentrated within deeper updrafts. With time,
boundary-layer conditions should gradually destabilize across
eastern NC, such that surface-based buoyancy should be noted by
mid-late morning. However, as this occurs, low-level winds will
veer, and deeper convergence is expected to shift offshore. Will
maintain MRGL risk for the potential for locally damaging winds or
perhaps a brief tornado with early-day convection.
Farther south, an expansive MCS developed across the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico Friday evening. This complex of storms has moved
across most of south FL and disrupted the boundary layer across all
areas north of the Straits. Even so, latest model guidance suggests
boundary layer will recover by late morning as surface temperatures
warm through the mid 70s. Ample deep-layer flow/shear will persist
across south FL, and convection that evolves within this veered flow
regime may exhibit some organization. Locally damaging winds, along
with a low risk for tornadoes, is expected with prefrontal
convection.
..Darrow/Squitieri.. 03/23/2024
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