Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1100 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 221630Z - 231200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS INTO A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm gusts, isolated large hail and a tornado or two
are possible today and tonight over parts of the Florida Keys into a
small part of southern mainland Florida.
...South FL and the Keys...
Few changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. Multiple MCSs
continue to be noted over the Gulf of Mexico today, tracking slowly
eastward. The first system is affecting far south FL, with
widespread precipitation and a few embedded thunderstorms. Dense
cloud cover is limiting destabilization, suggesting that near-term
severe threat is rather low. Nevertheless, an isolated cell cable
of gusty winds or a brief spin-up is possible through mid-afternoon.
A second MCS is seen on IR imagery over the central Gulf and will
approach south FL and the Keys after dark. It is unclear whether
destabilization will occur in the wake of the first system, but CAM
guidance suggests a somewhat greater potential for organized
convection and perhaps a few supercells in the 03-06z period.
Forecast soundings indicate relatively strong low-level and deep
layer shear during this time, promoting a risk of damaging winds or
perhaps a tornado or two. This risk is conditional on the evolution
of the first MCS and whether the air mass can recover.
...FL Panhandle...
Another cluster of thunderstorms is occurring late this morning over
southern AL and southeast LA. This activity will track eastward
across the FL Panhandle through the day. Considerable cloud cover
and limited low-level moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s and lower
60s) will limit instability. However, most CAM solutions indicate a
few stronger updrafts may develop later this afternoon. Relatively
cool temperatures aloft and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates
would suggest some risk of hail or gusty winds in any robust cells
that can form.
..Hart/Thornton.. 03/22/2024
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