Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday night across parts of
coastal/northwest Washington.
...Pacific Northwest...
Strong midlevel height falls (180m in 12hr) will spread across the
Pacific Northwest later today in advance of a very cold upper
trough. Latest model guidance suggests 500mb temperatures will
decrease to less than -30C north of the sagging jet. This will
encourage lapse rates to steepen such that surface-based parcels
should become buoyant, primarily after 06z. Greatest instability
will be near the coast where marine-influenced boundary layer may
contribute to SBCAPE on the order of 100-200 J/kg. Forecast
soundings suggest charge separation is possible as cloud tops could
exceed 4km AGL, likely adequate for lightning. Will maintain thunder
probabilities along the WA Coast to account for this late-night
possibility.
..Darrow/Lyons.. 02/25/2024
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