Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SC
INTO SOUTHEAST NC...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe storms are possible during the afternoon and
early evening over parts of South Carolina into southeast North
Carolina.
...Carolinas...
A mid/upper-level trough is forecast to amplify over the eastern
CONUS through the day, as a strong upper-level jet (150 kt at 300
mb) intensifies near the base of the trough across the Southeast. A
cold front initially draped from the central Appalachians
southwestward to the FL Panhandle will move eastward through the
day, as a surface low moves off of the Mid Atlantic coast and begins
to deepen offshore by evening.
Destabilization in advance of the cold front will generally be
limited by early-day cloudiness/precipitation and modest low-level
moisture. However, in the wake of morning convection, modest diurnal
heating beneath cooling temperatures aloft will steepen lapse rates
and allow for MLCAPE to potentially increase to around 500 J/kg.
Thunderstorm development will be possible during the afternoon
along/ahead of the cold front, with the greatest relative storm
coverage expected from SC into southeast NC. While convection will
likely remain rather low-topped, effective shear of 30-40 kt may
support a few stronger cells and/or clusters, with an attendant
threat of small to marginally severe hail and localized
strong/damaging gusts.
..Dean/Lyons.. 02/23/2024
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