Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Tue Feb 20 2024
Valid 211200Z - 221200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI INTO ADJACENT AREAS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA AS WELL AS
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
...SUMMARY...
Areas of strong thunderstorm development are possible across parts
of the Ozark Plateau and adjacent Great Plains and across central
Illinois to far western Indiana late Wednesday evening into early
Thursday, with some risk for severe hail.
...Synopsis...
05 UTC water-vapor imagery depicts a shortwave trough lingering off
the southern California coast. This feature is expected to
accelerate eastward over the next 24 hours, reaching the
mid-MS/lower-OH River Valley by early Thursday. Thunderstorm
potential will be focused with this wave as colder temperatures
aloft, along with an subtle influx of mid-level Pacific Moisture,
overspreads the Great Basin/Four Corners. Further east into the
Plains, moisture return ahead of this feature and an attendant
surface low will promote isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms
late tonight into early Thursday morning.
...Ozark Plateau and central Illinois...
05 UTC surface observations show limited moisture return across
eastern TX within a weak southerly flow regime. However, poleward
moisture advection will strengthen through the day as a lee cyclone
deepens over the central Plains. A low-level thermal ridge in place
across the southern Plains will prohibit surface-based convection
along a tightening dryline/Pacific front; however, warm advection on
the northeastern periphery of the thermal ridge, coupled with some
low-level moistening/cooling associated with meager Gulf moisture
return and dynamic ascent within the left-exit region of the
approach upper jet, should promote isolated to scattered elevated
thunderstorms after 00 UTC across MO and IL. Elongated hodographs
within the MUCAPE bearing layer will promote 30-40 knots of
effective bulk shear, favorable for storm organization. This
environment will be in place across much of MO, IL and western IN,
but storm coverage is uncertain owing to the somewhat nebulous/weak
forcing for ascent within the warm advection regime and/or along the
mid-level trough axis. However, discrete to semi-discrete storms
that can reach maturity within this environment should pose a hail
threat. Hail risks areas are maintained/introduced where latest
guidance suggests the highest probability of convective initiation.
..Moore.. 02/21/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/T32R00
