Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1152 PM CST Mon Feb 19 2024
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered, generally weak, thunderstorm activity is possible
Tuesday into Tuesday night across parts of Pacific Coast states into
Great Basin, with little risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis...
Thunderstorm potential over the CONUS will remain focused across the
Western states for today/tonight. 05 UTC water-vapor imagery reveals
an upper trough just off the West Coast with two more prominent
vorticity maxima evident off the OR and southern CA coasts. The
occluding northern cyclone is forecast to weaken and migrate north
as the southern shortwave drifts east towards SoCAL within a belt of
stronger mid/upper-level flow. Cool mid-level temperatures were
sampled by 00 UTC soundings at OAK and VGB with colder temperatures
likely offshore closer to the main trough axis based on satellite
imagery and upper-air analyses. These cool mid-level temperatures
will gradually spread east through the day and should promote
marginal, but adequate, buoyancy for convection amid modest diurnal
warming. As with yesterday/Monday, isolated to scattered shallow
convection is anticipated; however, unlike Monday, kinematic fields
co-located with surface-based buoyancy are expected to be modest
given the overall weakening of the synoptic wave. Consequently, the
potential for organized convection should be lower, negating the
need for risk probabilities.
..Moore.. 02/20/2024
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