Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CST Tue Feb 13 2024
Valid 141200Z - 151200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. on
Wednesday and Wednesday night.
...Synopsis...
A pair of shortwave troughs are forecast to move through the
low-amplitude upper flow covering the CONUS on Wednesday. The lead
wave, which is currently moving through the western Great Basin,
will continue eastward through the Plains, finishing the period
extended along the MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated
ahead of this wave over the central High Plains, with the resulting
low then tracking northeastward ahead of the parent shortwave and
ending the period over northeast IL/southeast WI/southern Lake
Michigan. Any meaningful return flow will remain well south of track
of this low, precluding any surface-based buoyancy. Modest elevated
buoyancy may develop in the IL/MO/IA border vicinity late Wednesday
night, amid strengthen warm-air advection attendant to the
approaching shortwave. A few lightning flashes are possible within
any deeper convective cores from this region eastward across IL, but
overall coverage is currently expected to remain less than 10
percent.
A second shortwave will follow in the wake of the first, moving
through OR and northern/central CA late Wednesday night. Cold
mid-level temperatures will accompany this shortwave, but cool
surface conditions will limit the overall buoyancy, keeping
convection shallow and precluding lightning production.
..Mosier/Bentley.. 02/14/2024
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