Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Tue Feb 13 2024
Valid 131300Z - 141200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
through tonight.
...Discussion...
A fast-moving shortwave trough over the Mid-Atlantic seaboard early
today will continue to quickly shift northeastward to the western
Atlantic, with a surface cyclone/cold front moving
east-northeastward in a similar fashion. With weak buoyancy noted
along the coast (12z observed soundings from Wallops Island and
Morehead City), a couple of lightning flashes could initially occur
today near the coastal Mid-Atlantic, such as near far eastern
portions of Maryland/Virginia and northeast North Carolina. However,
this potential will remain quite low/sparse overall and quickly wane
this morning. Other offshore lightning flashes could occur off the
coast of southern New England through early afternoon.
Nearly zonal upper-level flow will otherwise prevail across the
remainder of the CONUS, as dry and stable conditions are anticipated
east of the Rockies.
..Guyer/Kerr.. 02/13/2024
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