Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 PM CST Thu Jan 04 2024
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
COUNTIES FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur this afternoon through early
Saturday morning across the coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough over the southern Plains this morning will move
toward the lower to middle MS Valley during the day, and will lose
amplitude as it reaches the OH/TN Valleys by Saturday morning.
Moderate to strong southwest winds aloft will precede this trough,
and overspread much of the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast.
At the surface, a cold front will move across the western Gulf of
Mexico during the day, with a surface low developing toward southern
LA and MS by early evening. Cool conditions will exist over land
ahead of this trough due to a strong surface high over the Mid
Atlantic, and this will likely inhibit destabilization over most of
the area, the exception being portions of the immediate Gulf Coast.
Shear will be strong, with any severe potential conditional on the
development of SBCAPE.
...Coastal LA/MS/AL/FL Panhandle...
Substantial thunderstorm coverage is possible shortly after 12Z this
morning near or just off the TX Coast, as lift along a cold front
interacts with increasing low-level moisture. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected within the warm-advection regime ahead of
the cold front, as positive theta-e advection occurs just above the
cool boundary over land. Little to no heating is anticipated due to
the rapid influx of moisture, and minimal temperature advection is
expected at the surface over most inland counties. The exception may
be along the Gulf Coast, where forecast soundings do indicate rising
dewpoints at least into the mid 60s F, just ahead of the cold front.
As such, the severe risk, including the risk for brief tornadoes or
damaging gusts, appears to be confined to the coastal counties, and
primarily overnight.
..Jewell/Lyons.. 01/05/2024
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