Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Mon Jan 01 2024
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered non-severe thunderstorms are expected from central Texas
during the day toward the Texas Coast and Sabine Valley through
Wednesday morning. A few lightning flashes will also be possible
along the coast of northern California.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
The primary feature of interest today will be a progressive
shortwave trough which will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains
through 00Z. This feature will be near the Sabine Valley shortly
after 12Z Wednesday.
At the surface, a sprawling surface ridge will extend from the
central/northern Rockies across the Plains and into the Southeast,
preventing any substantial moisture return ahead of the
aforementioned shortwave trough. Given the cool air mass in place
over land, little in the way of pressure falls are forecast, with
only an "inverted trough" forecast along the TX Coast.
Elsewhere, an upper trough amplify as it moves quickly onshore
across northern CA. Strong cooling aloft as well as lift along a
cold front may result in isolated low-topped convection late in the
day.
...TX/LA...
Scattered elevated convection is expected to develop over central TX
after about 18Z, as cooling aloft occurs with the upper trough, and
modest positive theta-e advection materializes during the late
afternoon/evening. Elevated MUCAPE on the order of 250-500 J/kg is
forecast over most of the area, with indications of SBCAPE over
coastal counties of Deep South TX where 60s F dewpoints will exist
on easterly flow. It appears that the bulk of the thunderstorm
activity will remain north of the cold front, and any surface-based
potential will be quite limited in time and space over far
southern/coastal areas of TX. Given relatively poor low-level lapse
rates forecast within that small moist sector, severe weather is not
forecast.
..Jewell/Moore.. 01/02/2024
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