Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 PM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities are very low today.
...Southern Arizona...
Weak large-scale troughing will extend across northwestern Mexico
into the Four Corners region today well ahead of the primary upper
trough expected to approach the West Coast late in the period.
Latest model guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will
occur across northwestern Mexico into southeast AZ where surface-3km
lapse rates will steepen in excess of 8 C/km. This will likely lead
to weak buoyancy by afternoon, but higher PW air mass will hold
south of the international border, along with greater instability.
Forecast soundings suggest surface-based parcels will be negligibly
inhibited by 21-22z, and only isolated showers are expected within a
weak-flow regime across this region. While a lightning strike can
not be ruled out with the deepest updrafts, the primary risk for
thunderstorms should hold south of the border.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 01/30/2024
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