Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0629 AM CST Mon Jan 29 2024
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
The mid/upper-level pattern will remain unsuitable for deep moist
convection through the period over most of the CONUS. A strong,
synoptic-scale trough -- now exiting the East Coast, has been
preceded by a surface cold front leaving a cool, stable boundary
layer behind it, east of the Rockies. Meanwhile, a high-amplitude
ridge will shift slowly eastward across the Intermountain West,
Great Basin and northern Rockies.
A northern-stream shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel
imagery over MB -- is forecast to dig southeastward to the Upper
Great Lakes and mid/upper parts of the Mississippi Valley overnight.
This feature will be preceded by a strengthening low-level cold
front and large-scale lift aloft. An associated band of precip --
with embedded, weak, mainly midlevel convection -- should cross
parts of MI/Lake Michigan/IL overnight, reaching northern IN by 12Z.
While some forecast soundings indicate very weak elevated MUCAPE
(less than 100 J/kg) in roughly the 600-500-mb layer, any lighting
potential appears too uncertain and isolated for an unconditional,
10% general-thunder area.
..Edwards.. 01/29/2024
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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