Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1129 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2024
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
FL PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
A couple brief tornadoes and isolated damaging winds are possible
this morning into the afternoon over parts of the Florida Peninsula.
...Synopsis...
A broad longwave trough will slowly shift east over the central to
the eastern states with the embedded primary shortwave impulse
moving across the OH Valley to the northern Appalachians. This will
induce primary cyclogenesis near the Mid-Atlantic to New England
coasts, with weaker secondary cyclogenesis over the northeast Gulf
to off the South Atlantic coast.
...FL Peninsula...
Initially elevated, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing at 12Z within a strengthening low-level warm conveyor
ahead of the aforementioned cyclogenesis in the northeast Gulf. Some
of this activity may become surface based by late morning in the
north-central FL vicinity, along the northern extent of mid to upper
60s surface dew points. The temporal window for this to occur
appears relatively limited, as cyclogenesis quickly focuses off the
Atlantic coast. In its wake, the trailing surface cold front will
push southeast, and isolated thunderstorms will be possible
along/ahead of this boundary from late morning into the afternoon.
West-southwesterly flow will strengthen throughout the troposphere,
yielding strong, nearly unidirectional deep-layer shear. As such, a
few supercells are probable, tending to focus across the north part
of central FL during the morning to the south part in the afternoon.
Low-level winds will tend to become more veered with time,
suggesting hodograph curvature will be modest towards peak
boundary-layer heating. Storm-scale/boundary interactions will
probably be necessary for brief tornado development. Otherwise,
isolated strong gusts will be possible in the deepest cores before
convection wanes towards early evening.
..Grams/Weinman.. 01/16/2024
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