Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 AM CST Sun Jan 14 2024
Valid 141300Z - 151200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of south Florida, as
well as from southeastern New York across parts of New England.
...Synopsis/Discussion...
A strong mid/upper-level low will meander across the James Bay
region through the period, with an extensive fetch of cyclonic flow
covering most of the CONUS. Most of the associated/embedded
shortwave troughs will remain too removed from suitable low-level
moisture/instability to influence thunder potential, with two
exceptions:
1. A perturbation now located over parts of OH/IN, is forecast to
move east-northeastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic and New
England through 00Z. Associated strong large-scale scent/cooling
aloft today will help to offset cool near-surface temperatures
across parts of southern New England, generating weak surface-based
buoyancy anyway, with MLCAPE up to about 100 J/kg. This will
support a fast-moving band of low-topped convection extending above
the -20 deg C isotherm at times, with isolated embedded thunder.
Downdrafts in a few embedded cells may produce strong gusts via
downward momentum transfer. However, given the weak instability,
organized severe potential appears too low and conditional to
justify a categorical area at this time.
2. A southern-stream shortwave trough and vorticity banner are
apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the northwestern Gulf.
This positively tilted feature will move rapidly eastward today,
crossing central FL around 00Z and south FL shortly thereafter.
Associated large-scale lift, atop a residual low-level frontal zone
(surface boundary over the Straits/Bahamas), will overlap enough
moisture to support sporadic lightning with cells embedded in a
precip plume. MUCAPE of 300-500 J/kg is possible, with the Mexican
EML previously over the region having advected away. Still,
midlevel lapse rates will be weak, with low CAPE density. Enough
deep shear may remain to support some convective organization, but
lack of greater instability and lift will keep severe potential
meager at most.
..Edwards/Dean.. 01/14/2024
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