Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1148 PM CST Tue Dec 26 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United
States through tonight.
...Synopsis...
A large deep-layer cyclone centered over the mid MS Valley will
slowly move east through tonight. An embedded mid-level disturbance
will rotate through the outer orbit of the large-scale cyclone and
move from the lower MS Valley to Long Island during the period.
Weak buoyancy will primarily be relegated to the coastal areas of
the Mid-Atlantic states, but it may develop as far inland in pockets
across the central Appalachians during the day, as a surface low
migrates north near the coast. As a result, scattered showers and a
few weak thunderstorms are possible. The limited instability will
likely preclude severe thunderstorm activity. Farther west, a
potent mid-level trough/closed low west of the Pacific Northwest
will feature an impulse moving into the coastal areas of northern CA
and coastal OR/WA during the day. Cold 500-mb temperatures will
probably yield 100-200 J/kg MUCAPE and a few lightning flashes with
the deeper convection as it moves ashore. Elsewhere, tranquil
conditions will prevail across a large part of the Interior West
across the southern U.S. and influenced by surface high pressure.
..Smith/Bentley.. 12/27/2023
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