Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, December 25, 2023

SPC Dec 25, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Sun Dec 24 2023

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z


Severe thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight across the
contiguous United States.

A deep-layer cyclone over the NE/KS/IA/MO vicinity will become
vertically stacked by early Tuesday morning. A belt of strong
cyclonic mid-level flow will extend through the base of the parent
trough from the Four Corners east into the Mid South. An embedded
mid-level shortwave trough initially over the lower MS Valley this
morning will weaken as it moves northeast into the lower OH Valley
by the mid afternoon. In the low levels, a surface low over MO will
develop northward and occlude near the SD/IA/MN border as a cold
front sweeps across the Mid South and central Gulf Coast states.
Ahead of the front, an increasingly pinched moist sector will extend
from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower OH Valley with 50s
surface dewpoints north, and lower to mid 60s dewpoints south.
Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible in an
extensive rain shield from the northeast Gulf Coast into the lower
OH Valley during the day. Despite several hundred J/kg MUCAPE, weak
low to mid-level lapse rates will likely limit overall convective
vigor. Additionally, decreasing large-scale forcing for ascent is
forecast across the northeast Gulf Coast states and SC as the lead
mid-level disturbance becomes increasingly displaced from the
region. Farther north across parts of the lower OH Valley, models
vary (lending uncertainty) regarding scant destabilization and
subsequent potential for a couple of low-topped convective cells.

..Smith/Bentley.. 12/25/2023

SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)