Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1115 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2023
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk of thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S., today
through tonight.
...Discussion...
Downstream of amplified mid/upper ridging near the U.S/British
Columbia Pacific coast, which may include a developing embedded
mid-level high offshore of the Pacific Northwest, a vigorous short
wave impulse is forecast to dig southeast of the Canadian Northwest
Territories into the northern U.S. Great Plains by daybreak Sunday.
As it does, models indicate that a significant mid/upper trough,
currently digging into the Four Corners vicinity, will accelerate
east of the southern Rockies late today through tonight.
Preceded by fairly extensive cold surface ridging currently
encompassing most areas to the east of the Rockies, and much of the
Gulf of Mexico, models indicate only weak surface troughing
developing ahead of a reinforcing cold intrusion to the lee of the
southern Rockies, through at least this period. A moistening
southerly return flow may still begin to develop off a modifying
Gulf of Mexico boundary layer, across the northwestern Gulf Coast
and portions of the southern Great Plains. However, it appears that
this will only yield layers of very weak elevated destabilization
inland of immediate Gulf coastal areas.
Aided by the stronger mid-level forcing for ascent and colder
mid-level temperatures, convection (mostly rooted around 700 mb)
capable of producing lightning does not appear entirely out of the
question across parts of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma, and
northeastern Texas into Arkansas, this afternoon through tonight.
While the extent of this potential remains at least a bit unclear,
thunderstorm probabilities still appear below the minimum 10 percent
threshold for a categorical thunder area, based on current forecast
soundings.
..Kerr/Weinman.. 11/25/2023
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