Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Oct 25 2023
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging wind
gusts and isolated hail, are possible today across parts of the
southern and central Plains into the mid Missouri Valley.
...Southern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move across northern Mexico today as
south-southwesterly mid-level flow remains over the southern Plains.
At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place across much of the
southern Plains, with surface dewpoints generally in the 60s F. As
surface heating takes place across the southern Plains, moderate
instability is forecast to develop over parts of west-central and
northwest Texas this afternoon. In response, scattered thunderstorms
will likely develop along and near the instability axis this
afternoon and evening. Afternoon RAP forecast soundings from San
Angelo to Wichita Falls have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
range, with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. This may be enough for an
isolated severe threat. Hail and marginally severe wind gusts will
be possible with the stronger multicells. The severe threat will
likely remain minimized due to relatively weak lapse rates.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the central
Plains. At the surface, strong moisture advection will occur across
the central Plains as a weakly unstable airmass advects northward
across the central Plains and mid Missouri Valley. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the northwestern edge of
the moist airmass this afternoon, where MLCAPE is forecast to peak
near 1000 J/kg from northeast Kansas into southeastern Nebraska. In
addition, 0-6 km shear in this areas is forecast to be in the 40 to
45 knot range. This suggests that a marginal severe threat will be
possible with cells that have access to the strongest instability
late this afternoon and early this evening. Hail and a few
marginally severe wind gusts will be the primary threats.
..Broyles/Wendt.. 10/25/2023
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