LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Valid 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across west Kansas into
the Texas Panhandle, centered on the late afternoon to early
evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threats.
...Central High Plains to west TX...
A series of low-amplitude mid-level impulses embedded within a
confluent flow regime should yield gradual and broad amplification
of a mid to upper trough over the north-central states. This will
aid in building of a surface ridge from the Dakotas down the central
to southern High Plains behind a cold front accelerating south. A
confined plume of modified northwest Gulf air should be maintained
across a portion of west TX into southwest KS ahead of the front.
Elevated convection has persisted within the low-level warm regime
attendant to this plume from western KS into northwest TX. Bulk of
CAM guidance from 00Z onward has not particularly handled this
activity well. While this lowers forecast confidence a bit, robust
boundary-layer heating will undoubtedly ensue to its west across the
High Plains. This should yield a plume of moderate buoyancy from
northwest TX into southwest KS.
Afternoon thunderstorm development should be focused within three
regimes. One being high-based storms emanating off the southern
Rockies, two being along the front and buoyancy plume intersection
in west KS, and three near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection
that most likely will be somewhere in the TX Panhandle. For the
latter two, low-level veering of the wind profile with height
beneath mid to upper level speed shear should favor at least a few
discrete supercells with a primary threat of large hail. Upstream
high-based activity should overtake slower-moving supercells and KS
supercells will also be undercut from north to south by the
accelerating cold front. This should yield broader cluster
development towards early evening with some uptick in severe wind
potential anticipated. This threat may be relatively short-lived
though with an expected weakening trend into late evening given the
confined longitudinal extent of the surface-based buoyancy corridor.
..Grams/Mosier.. 09/10/2023
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/Svv115
Windy.com Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK |
CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ... | RADAR FULL MAP SCREEN |
---|
MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
O'Hare International Airport KORD
(Arlington Heights South)
Chicago Executive Airport KPWK
(Arlington Heights North)
Sunday, September 10, 2023
SPC Sep 10, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)