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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, September 10, 2023

SPC Sep 10, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 101300Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across west Kansas into the Texas Panhandle, centered on the late afternoon to early evening. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threats. ...Central High Plains to west TX... A series of low-amplitude mid-level impulses embedded within a confluent flow regime should yield gradual and broad amplification of a mid to upper trough over the north-central states. This will aid in building of a surface ridge from the Dakotas down the central to southern High Plains behind a cold front accelerating south. A confined plume of modified northwest Gulf air should be maintained across a portion of west TX into southwest KS ahead of the front. Elevated convection has persisted within the low-level warm regime attendant to this plume from western KS into northwest TX. Bulk of CAM guidance from 00Z onward has not particularly handled this activity well. While this lowers forecast confidence a bit, robust boundary-layer heating will undoubtedly ensue to its west across the High Plains. This should yield a plume of moderate buoyancy from northwest TX into southwest KS. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be focused within three regimes. One being high-based storms emanating off the southern Rockies, two being along the front and buoyancy plume intersection in west KS, and three near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection that most likely will be somewhere in the TX Panhandle. For the latter two, low-level veering of the wind profile with height beneath mid to upper level speed shear should favor at least a few discrete supercells with a primary threat of large hail. Upstream high-based activity should overtake slower-moving supercells and KS supercells will also be undercut from north to south by the accelerating cold front. This should yield broader cluster development towards early evening with some uptick in severe wind potential anticipated. This threat may be relatively short-lived though with an expected weakening trend into late evening given the confined longitudinal extent of the surface-based buoyancy corridor. ..Grams/Mosier.. 09/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC