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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, September 10, 2023

SPC Sep 10, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon from the central High Plains into parts of west-central Texas, with the greatest hail threat from western Kansas into parts of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. ...Synopsis... A weakening upper high will shift south from southern AZ/NM into northwestern Mexico today, while a rather broad/diffuse upper trough envelops the central and northern Plains. This northern trough will be characterized by cool temperatures and weak winds aloft. Meanwhile, a lingering but weakening upper trough will remain over the Appalachians, with minor height rises ahead of the northern Plains trough late. Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a belt of stronger midlevel winds around 40 kt will exist across CO and KS, resulting in sufficient shear for scattered severe storms. Weaker flow aloft will exist into western TX, but hot temperatures and steering currents may allow for strong gusts to push rather far south through early evening. At the surface, a low is forecast over southwest KS during the afternoon as a cold front pushes into eastern CO and northwest KS. Southerly winds will maintain a plume of steep low-level lapse rates toward the low, which will support daytime development. Farther east into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, a weaker surface pattern will exist compared to previous days as the upper trough and lapse rates overall weaken. Scattered general thunderstorms will remain likely there, but with little severe risk. ...Central High Plains into western TX... Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected early this morning over much of NE into northern KS, with little severe hail risk overall. As the air mass heats across western KS south of the cold front, a small but favorable area for severe storms producing large hail and locally damaging winds appears likely after 20Z, and some of this activity could be related to outflow from earlier activity to the northeast. Meanwhile, other storms will likely form from Colorado Springs into northeast NM, where sporadic strong to severe gusts could occur. Just enough shear may exist for a supercell or two over the Slight Risk area, with some producing hail of 1.50-2.00", close to significant criteria. The less favorable midlevel winds may however result in more clustering with severe outflow production. Farther south within the steep low-level lapse rate plume into West TX, high-based activity is likely with strong to severe outflow possible with rather disorganized storm modes. Weakly veering winds with height will favor south/southwestward-moving storms. ..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/10/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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