LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
WESTERN KANSAS INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon
from the central High Plains into parts of west-central Texas, with
the greatest hail threat from western Kansas into parts of the
Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles.
...Synopsis...
A weakening upper high will shift south from southern AZ/NM into
northwestern Mexico today, while a rather broad/diffuse upper trough
envelops the central and northern Plains. This northern trough will
be characterized by cool temperatures and weak winds aloft.
Meanwhile, a lingering but weakening upper trough will remain over
the Appalachians, with minor height rises ahead of the northern
Plains trough late.
Along the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a belt of stronger
midlevel winds around 40 kt will exist across CO and KS, resulting
in sufficient shear for scattered severe storms. Weaker flow aloft
will exist into western TX, but hot temperatures and steering
currents may allow for strong gusts to push rather far south through
early evening.
At the surface, a low is forecast over southwest KS during the
afternoon as a cold front pushes into eastern CO and northwest KS.
Southerly winds will maintain a plume of steep low-level lapse rates
toward the low, which will support daytime development. Farther east
into the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, a weaker surface pattern will
exist compared to previous days as the upper trough and lapse rates
overall weaken. Scattered general thunderstorms will remain likely
there, but with little severe risk.
...Central High Plains into western TX...
Scattered elevated thunderstorms are expected early this morning
over much of NE into northern KS, with little severe hail risk
overall.
As the air mass heats across western KS south of the cold front, a
small but favorable area for severe storms producing large hail and
locally damaging winds appears likely after 20Z, and some of this
activity could be related to outflow from earlier activity to the
northeast. Meanwhile, other storms will likely form from Colorado
Springs into northeast NM, where sporadic strong to severe gusts
could occur. Just enough shear may exist for a supercell or two over
the Slight Risk area, with some producing hail of 1.50-2.00", close
to significant criteria. The less favorable midlevel winds may
however result in more clustering with severe outflow production.
Farther south within the steep low-level lapse rate plume into West
TX, high-based activity is likely with strong to severe outflow
possible with rather disorganized storm modes. Weakly veering winds
with height will favor south/southwestward-moving storms.
..Jewell/Squitieri.. 09/10/2023
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