LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023
Valid 301300Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NEAR-COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible in association with Hurricane
Idalia through tonight from the northern Florida Peninsula across
southeast Georgia into the eastern Carolinas.
...Florida/Southeast Georgia/coastal Carolinas...
Hurricane Idalia, centered just inland near the Florida Big Bend
early this morning, will continue northeastward today and tonight.
Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest track and
intensity details. Observational data including near-coastal 12z
soundings are sampling the strong low/mid-tropospheric winds on its
eastern periphery, which will continue to transition northeastward
today into tonight across southern/eastern Georgia toward the
coastal Carolinas.
Accordingly, inland-spreading peripheral convective bands will
likely include supercells, with a tornado risk with the more
sustained low-level mesocyclones. For additional short-term details,
see Mesoscale Discussion 2064. Have upgraded coastal portions of
Georgia and the Carolinas to reflect what should be a maximized
tornado potential during the day into this evening for near-coastal
areas.
...New England...
Modest destabilization may occur later today in the wake of early
day scattered showers/thunderstorms across the region. A few
stronger low-topped storms could materialize, but severe potential
should be mitigated by the marginal thermodynamic profiles with
respect to typical summer standards of heating and buoyancy.
...Eastern Montana and western/northern North Dakota...
A shortwave trough over the northern Intermountain West will
continue east-northeastward over Montana and reach southern
Saskatchewan late tonight. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by
this evening near/just behind a weak surface wave and wind shift. A
modestly unstable environment could support a few stronger storms,
but the overall potential for severe storms is currently expected to
remain low.
..Guyer/Goss.. 08/30/2023
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