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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, August 30, 2023

SPC Aug 30, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes will be possible in association with Hurricane Idalia through tonight from the northern portion of the Florida Peninsula across southeast Georgia and into the eastern Carolinas. ...FL Peninsula/GA/Carolinas... Hurricane Idalia and the associated strong to intense low-level wind fields in the eastern semicircle will gradually shift north-northeast during the day (see the latest National Hurricane Center forecasts for the forecast track). Hodographs will initially be enlarged and co-located with a very moist/tropical airmass near and north of the I-4 corridor in the FL Peninsula and into perhaps far southern GA during the morning. Several convective bands will likely spread across the region with embedded cells. Some of the stronger updrafts will potentially be capable of becoming supercellular and could yield an isolated risk for a tornado with the stronger/more persistent low-level mesocyclones. This corridor of favorable shear/weak buoyancy overlap will gradually shift north-northeast during the day and include the coastal plain of GA/SC and eventually into eastern portions of NC tonight. ...Northeast... A mid-level trough will quickly move from the Lower Great Lakes to the New England coast during the day. Model guidance indicates a band of showers/thunderstorms will probably be ongoing from eastern NY northward into Maine and shifting east during the morning. Some weak destabilization may occur in its wake during the afternoon, but veered westerly low-level flow and decreasing moisture will become less favorable for strong thunderstorm activity---precluding low-severe probabilities this outlook. ...MT into ND... A mid-level low/shortwave trough will move eastward across western and central MT during the day. A few thunderstorms are possible by early evening but weak instability will likely limit storm intensity. ..Smith/Thornton.. 08/30/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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