LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Wed Aug 30 2023
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS...
...SUMMARY...
A few tornadoes will be possible in association with Hurricane
Idalia through tonight from the northern portion of the Florida
Peninsula across southeast Georgia and into the eastern Carolinas.
...FL Peninsula/GA/Carolinas...
Hurricane Idalia and the associated strong to intense low-level wind
fields in the eastern semicircle will gradually shift
north-northeast during the day (see the latest National Hurricane
Center forecasts for the forecast track). Hodographs will initially
be enlarged and co-located with a very moist/tropical airmass near
and north of the I-4 corridor in the FL Peninsula and into perhaps
far southern GA during the morning. Several convective bands will
likely spread across the region with embedded cells. Some of the
stronger updrafts will potentially be capable of becoming
supercellular and could yield an isolated risk for a tornado with
the stronger/more persistent low-level mesocyclones. This corridor
of favorable shear/weak buoyancy overlap will gradually shift
north-northeast during the day and include the coastal plain of
GA/SC and eventually into eastern portions of NC tonight.
...Northeast...
A mid-level trough will quickly move from the Lower Great Lakes to
the New England coast during the day. Model guidance indicates a
band of showers/thunderstorms will probably be ongoing from eastern
NY northward into Maine and shifting east during the morning. Some
weak destabilization may occur in its wake during the afternoon, but
veered westerly low-level flow and decreasing moisture will become
less favorable for strong thunderstorm activity---precluding
low-severe probabilities this outlook.
...MT into ND...
A mid-level low/shortwave trough will move eastward across western
and central MT during the day. A few thunderstorms are possible by
early evening but weak instability will likely limit storm
intensity.
..Smith/Thornton.. 08/30/2023
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