LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 03 2023
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHEAST CO...SOUTHWEST NE...NORTHWEST KS...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MIDDLE TN
INTO NORTH AL/NORTHWEST GA...AND ALSO ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN NY...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over the central High
Plains this afternoon and evening, with gusts in the 60-80 mph range
possible. Storms capable of damaging gusts will also be possible
across parts of the Tennessee Valley, Southeast, and upper Great
Lakes region.
...Central High Plains vicinity...
A mid/upper-level trough will move from the Intermountain West into
parts of the central/northern Plains later today. As this occurs,
moderate midlevel westerly flow will overspread moist low-level
easterly flow over portions of the central High Plains. This will
result in a favorably sheared and moderately unstable environment by
late afternoon. Supercells will be possible with initial scattered
thunderstorm development, with an attendant threat of hail and
isolated severe gusts. Evolution into an outflow-driven storm
cluster is expected by early/mid evening, which could result in an
increasing risk of 60-80 mph gusts spreading eastward with time. The
greatest threat for an organized, severe-wind producing cluster
still appears to be from northeast CO into southwest NE and
northwest KS, where an Enhanced Risk is maintained with this
outlook.
...Parts of the TN Valley/Southeast...
A well-organized MCS that is ongoing early this morning near the
lower OH Valley is expected to move southeastward into parts of the
TN Valley and Southeast later today. Uncertainty remains regarding
the severity of this MCS with time, but some damaging-wind risk may
persist into parts of middle TN and northern AL/GA through the
morning. Additional development will be possible this afternoon near
and to the cool side of the remnant outflow, possibly aided by a
convectively enhanced midlevel shortwave trough that will move
through the region this afternoon and evening. Low/midlevel flow
will be sufficient to support at least a localized damaging-wind
risk with any redevelopment during the afternoon/evening, though the
bulk of convection may remain somewhat elevated to the cool side of
the outflow boundary.
...Parts of lower MI into NY...
A seasonably deep upper trough will move across parts of
Ontario/Quebec today, with the southern extension of this trough
impinging upon a rather moist environment from parts of MI into the
upper Great Lakes region. There remains some uncertainty regarding
the potential for early convection to disrupt destabilization across
parts of NY/VT, but in general, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg (locally
greater) is expected by late afternoon from lower MI into the upper
Great Lakes region, as effective shear increases into the 30-40 kt
range. Storm coverage may be relatively isolated through the
afternoon, but an organized cluster that initially develops across
eastern Ontario may move into northern NY by early evening, with a
threat of damaging gusts and perhaps isolated hail. Isolated storm
development will also be possible as far west as eastern lower MI,
where a conditional risk for hail and damaging gusts will be present
with any sustained storms during the afternoon and evening.
...Eastern KS into western MO...
While a relative minimum in storm coverage is possible from eastern
KS into western MO, some CAM guidance suggests that storms may
develop in association with an MCV sometime during the afternoon or
early evening, which would pose a conditional hail/wind risk. The
organized cluster that is forecast to develop across the central
High Plains may also propagate as far as eastern KS by early Friday
morning, with an isolated severe-wind threat.
..Dean/Bentley.. 08/03/2023
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