Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, August 2, 2023

SPC Aug 2, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN IL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing damaging gusts, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado are possible from central Missouri into southern Illinois, mainly this afternoon and evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are also possible across the Upper Great Lakes region and central High Plains. ...Missouri into southern IL and vicinity... Another round of widespread elevated convection will likely be ongoing at the start of the period from MO into southern IL and vicinity, as a southwesterly low-level jet impinges upon a persistent baroclinic zone. This convection may tend to diminish somewhat by late morning/early afternoon, potentially allowing for several hours of diurnal heating and outflow modification, and development of moderate to locally strong buoyancy by late afternoon. Meanwhile, an MCV originating from the central High Plains is forecast to approach the lower MO River Valley during the afternoon and evening, resulting in renewed thunderstorm development near and to the cool side of an outflow-reinforced surface boundary. Modestly enhanced low/midlevel flow will support sufficient effective shear for organized convection, and supercells may evolve out of initial redevelopment within a moist and moderately unstable environment. The extent of enhancement to low-level shear/SRH remains uncertain, but may be sufficient to support a tornado or two, depending in part on the extent of outflow modification to the cool side of the boundary. A threat for isolated damaging wind and hail would also accompany any sustained supercells. With rather weak upper-level flow across the region and potential for storm interactions/mergers, a rather quick transition to outflow-driven clusters may occur by early evening, potentially spreading a damaging-wind threat southeastward toward the lower OH Valley before convection weakens late tonight. ...Upper Great Lakes vicinity... Diurnal heating of a relatively moist environment is expected to result in moderate destabilization this afternoon from MN into parts of the upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, modest northwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, conditionally favorable for organized convection. However, large-scale ascent may be relatively limited, with a shortwave mid/upper-level trough forecast to pass well to the north across Ontario, and the trailing cold front not expected to approach the area until tonight. As a result, storm coverage may remain limited, but development of isolated cells/clusters will be possible during the afternoon/evening as MLCINH weakens. Hail and locally damaging gusts will be the primary threats with any sustained stronger storms. ...Central High Plains... Relatively rich low-level moisture will again support moderate destabilization across parts of the central High Plains this afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected from eastern CO into adjacent portions of southwest NE and western KS. Deep-layer shear is expected to remain rather weak, but isolated severe outflow gusts will be possible, especially in areas where stronger pre-convective heating occurs. ..Dean/Bentley.. 08/02/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)