LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Valid 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for a few tornadoes will gradually increase near parts
of the Florida Gulf Coast into north Florida through tonight as
Hurricane Idalia approaches the Florida Big Bend.
...Florida...
Hurricane Idalia is forecast to further strengthen as it continues
north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight
-- reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details.
In association with Idalia's northward movement, strengthening low
to mid-level flow will spread from south to north mainly across the
western half of the Florida Peninsula today. However, most guidance
indicate that hodographs will remain modest during the day but
increase in size during the evening and especially into the
overnight given the approach and expected strengthening of Idalia.
Model forecast soundings show poor lapse rates but very moist low
levels (mid 70s F dewpoints), yielding weak but supercell-sufficient
buoyancy. The risk for supercells and an isolated tornado threat
will be greatest late tonight through early Wednesday morning across
the west-central into northern Florida Peninsula.
...Northern Intermountain West/Northern Rockies...
Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent upper trough
approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest, with this trough expected
to reach the northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies later
today and tonight. Diurnal heating and adequate moisture will yield
a weakly unstable airmass (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region
with steep lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop
during the afternoon and spread northeastward and persist into the
evening. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be possible with
the stronger storms, mainly across portions of northern/central
Idaho into western Montana.
...Appalachians vicinity and Mid-Atlantic States...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected particularly this
afternoon through early/mid-evening. A moisture-rich airmass will
persist regionally, including some increase in moisture as a front
transitions across the Mid-Atlantic. Overall buoyancy will be fairly
limited by summertime standards with poor mid-level lapse rates and
thin CAPE profiles. Even so, a few stronger pulse-type storms
capable of gusty winds could occur mainly during the mid/late
afternoon hours through early evening, but the overall potential for
severe-caliber storms is currently expected to remain low.
..Guyer/Goss.. 08/29/2023
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