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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 29, 2023

SPC Aug 29, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... The potential for a few tornadoes will gradually increase near parts of the Florida Gulf Coast into north Florida through tonight as Hurricane Idalia approaches the Florida Big Bend. ...Florida... Hurricane Idalia is forecast to further strengthen as it continues north-northeastward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight -- reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest details. In association with Idalia's northward movement, strengthening low to mid-level flow will spread from south to north mainly across the western half of the Florida Peninsula today. However, most guidance indicate that hodographs will remain modest during the day but increase in size during the evening and especially into the overnight given the approach and expected strengthening of Idalia. Model forecast soundings show poor lapse rates but very moist low levels (mid 70s F dewpoints), yielding weak but supercell-sufficient buoyancy. The risk for supercells and an isolated tornado threat will be greatest late tonight through early Wednesday morning across the west-central into northern Florida Peninsula. ...Northern Intermountain West/Northern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early this morning shows a potent upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest, with this trough expected to reach the northern Intermountain West and northern Rockies later today and tonight. Diurnal heating and adequate moisture will yield a weakly unstable airmass (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) across the region with steep lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon and spread northeastward and persist into the evening. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be possible with the stronger storms, mainly across portions of northern/central Idaho into western Montana. ...Appalachians vicinity and Mid-Atlantic States... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected particularly this afternoon through early/mid-evening. A moisture-rich airmass will persist regionally, including some increase in moisture as a front transitions across the Mid-Atlantic. Overall buoyancy will be fairly limited by summertime standards with poor mid-level lapse rates and thin CAPE profiles. Even so, a few stronger pulse-type storms capable of gusty winds could occur mainly during the mid/late afternoon hours through early evening, but the overall potential for severe-caliber storms is currently expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Goss.. 08/29/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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