LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023
Valid 291200Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO NORTH FLORIDA...
...SUMMARY...
The potential for a few tornadoes should gradually increase
along/near parts of the Florida Gulf Coast and into north Florida
through tonight as Tropical Cyclone Idalia approaches the Florida
Big Bend.
...Florida Peninsula vicinity...
The latest forecast for Idalia by the National Hurricane Center has
Idalia moving nearly northward from the southeast Gulf of Mexico to
the shelf waters of the FL Big Bend during the period. Concurrent
with Idalia's movement northward, strengthening low to mid-level
flow will spread from south to north mainly across the western half
of the FL Peninsula. Model guidance indicates hodographs will
remain modest during the day but increase in size during the evening
and especially into the overnight. Model forecast soundings show
poor lapse rates but very moist low levels (mid 70s dewpoints),
yielding weak buoyancy. The risk for supercells and an isolated
tornado threat will be greatest from around midnight through early
Wednesday morning from near Tampa Bay to north FL.
...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies...
Water-vapor imagery early Tuesday morning shows a potent
trough/mid-level low over the eastern Pacific to the west of the
Pacific Northwest coast. A strong mid-level shortwave trough will
quickly move across the northwestern CONUS during the period.
Diurnal heating and adequate moisture will yield a weakly unstable
airmass (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates. Scattered
thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon and spread
northeast across the northern Rockies and persist into the evening.
Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the threats with the
stronger storms.
..Smith/Thornton.. 08/29/2023
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