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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Tuesday, August 29, 2023

SPC Aug 29, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2023 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... The potential for a few tornadoes should gradually increase along/near parts of the Florida Gulf Coast and into north Florida through tonight as Tropical Cyclone Idalia approaches the Florida Big Bend. ...Florida Peninsula vicinity... The latest forecast for Idalia by the National Hurricane Center has Idalia moving nearly northward from the southeast Gulf of Mexico to the shelf waters of the FL Big Bend during the period. Concurrent with Idalia's movement northward, strengthening low to mid-level flow will spread from south to north mainly across the western half of the FL Peninsula. Model guidance indicates hodographs will remain modest during the day but increase in size during the evening and especially into the overnight. Model forecast soundings show poor lapse rates but very moist low levels (mid 70s dewpoints), yielding weak buoyancy. The risk for supercells and an isolated tornado threat will be greatest from around midnight through early Wednesday morning from near Tampa Bay to north FL. ...Interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies... Water-vapor imagery early Tuesday morning shows a potent trough/mid-level low over the eastern Pacific to the west of the Pacific Northwest coast. A strong mid-level shortwave trough will quickly move across the northwestern CONUS during the period. Diurnal heating and adequate moisture will yield a weakly unstable airmass (250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and steep lapse rates. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop during the afternoon and spread northeast across the northern Rockies and persist into the evening. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the threats with the stronger storms. ..Smith/Thornton.. 08/29/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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