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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 22, 2023

SPC Jul 22, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail and damaging winds are expected later today into this evening across the central Plains to Upper Midwest, while other severe storms will be possible across the Southeast States and southern Arizona. ...South-central Plains/Mid-Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Weak height rises are expected owing to the building Western States upper ridge as a belt of moderately strong northwesterly winds aloft otherwise prevails across these regions. A moist airmass will remain in place particularly across the south-central Plains and middle Missouri Valley near and to the southeast of a weak front/wind shift and a subtle surface wave across Minnesota. Multiple preferred corridors of potential severe storm development into this afternoon are probable, including Minnesota as well as southern Nebraska and northwest/western Kansas near the aforementioned boundaries, aided by subtle southeastward-moving perturbations located across eastern Montana and southern Manitoba early this morning. A regionally maximized combination of moderate to locally strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt effective shear is expected by peak heating across southern Nebraska and western/northern Kansas, where isolated/widely scattered supercells capable of large hail may occur aside from some persist southeastward-moving small clusters capable of damaging winds through evening. Across the Upper Midwest, even with more modest buoyancy (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) and weaker deep-layer shear, some storms capable of hail/damaging winds will be possible across southern/eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Additional storm development is expected by late afternoon/early evening across the Raton Mesa vicinity and possibly into the nearby Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Wind profiles could support some brief supercell structures with any development across/into the Panhandles, but south/southeastward-moving clusters are otherwise expected across the region with some hail and severe-caliber wind gusts possible through evening. ...Southeast States... A belt of cyclonically curved and moderately strong westerlies will continue to reside across the region today. A surface wave will persist and potentially somewhat deepen across the coastal Carolinas today, while a west/southwestward-extending front otherwise settles southward across Louisiana-Mississippi-Alabama-Georgia. A very moist air mass near/south of the front will steadily destabilize today, with the strongest destabilization /3000+ J per kg MLCAPE/ expected across downstate portions of Louisiana-Mississippi-Alabama-Georgia. With seasonally strong westerlies aloft at least partially atop the frontal zone, effective shear of 30-35 kt will allow for scattered sustained multicells and well-organized clusters as storms increase in coverage and intensity into the afternoon. Damaging winds are the most probable hazard this afternoon and early evening. ...Southern Arizona... Clouds may linger particularly during the first part of the day, but a moderately moist airmass and ample heating will allow for the boundary layer to destabilize into the afternoon with thunderstorm development expected especially across southeast Arizona mountains/higher terrain, and to some extent across the Rim. A modest strengthening of easterly mid-level winds may occur late today on the immediate southern periphery of the upper ridge, which would be favorable for storm propagation onto the desert floor, with the potential for strong gusty outflow winds and blowing dust. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 07/22/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)