Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, July 22, 2023

SPC Jul 22, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with strong wind gusts and hail will be possible today across parts of the Southeast, Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Arizona. ...Southeast... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys today, as a cold front advances slowly southward across the Gulf Coast states. Near and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints will be in the lower to mid 70s F. As surface temperatures warm in this moist airmass, moderate instability will likely develop. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along and near an east-to-west axis of instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear is expected to be less than 30 knots in most areas, suggesting that any severe threat will remain unorganized. As low-level lapse rates steepen during the afternoon, the stronger multicells could produce a marginal wind-damage threat. The storms will move southeastward through the immediate coastal areas of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle during the mid to late afternoon. The threat could persist into the early evening across parts of southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. ...Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley/Upper Midwest... Northwest mid-level flow will be in place today across the central U.S., as a cold front moves southward through the central Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front near 60 F, will likely result in a pocket of moderate instability across Kansas by afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop near the front and move southward into the moderate instability. Forecast soundings at 21Z near and south of the instability axis in western Kansas suggest supercells will be possible, with MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, and 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This environment, combined with low to mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km will be favorable for isolated large hail. Wind damage will also be possible, mainly as cells mature during the late afternoon and early evening. Further to the northeast across the mid Missouri Valley and Upper Midwest, a relative narrow corridor of instability will likely develop during the afternoon along and just ahead of the cold front. Thunderstorms that form near the front will move south-southeastward into the stronger instability during the late afternoon. A few of these storms could produce hail and marginally severe wind gusts. ...Arizona... A mid-level anticyclone will be in place today across much of the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a relatively moist airmass will be in place across southern Arizona, where MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms appear likely to form in the higher terrain of southwest New Mexico, and move westward across southern Arizona late this afternoon and early this evening. A hot and nearly dry adiabatic temperature profile could contribute to strong downdraft accelerations with single and multicell storms. Wind-damage is expected to be the primary threat, with threat coverage remaining relatively low. ..Broyles/Bentley.. 07/22/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)