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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, June 28, 2023

SPC Jun 28, 2023 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

LIVE MAP (ABOVE) ... SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 28 2023 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA... ...SUMMARY... A relative concentration of severe risk may evolve across portions of central and northwestern Wisconsin, and adjacent portions of southeastern Minnesota and northeastern Iowa. A broader area of isolated severe storm potential is evident across much of the central/north-central portion of the country. ...Synopsis... Upper-level troughing is forecast across the western and eastern U.S. today, with these features flanking a flat ridge centered over the south-central states. At the surface, weak features are forecast to prevail, with the most pronounced feature being a baroclinic zone/warm front extending westward across Kansas and then northwestward across the central High Plains region during the afternoon. ...Portions of Wisconsin, southeastern Minnesota, and far northeastern Iowa... Models forecast afternoon development of thunderstorms across the southwestern Minnesota/western Wisconsin vicinity, within a zone of warm advection ahead of a very weak surface low progged to be crossing southern Minnesota during the afternoon. Given the belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, atop low-level southerly flow, shear favorable for organized storms is expected. As such, a few stronger storms will likely evolve with time, along with attendant risks for severe-caliber wind/hail locally. ...Portions of the northern and central Plains into the Midwest... Multiple small-scale disturbances will move westward across the northern and central U.S., with an enhanced belt of flow between the Canadian Prairie mid-level trough, and the central and southern Plains ridge. As daytime heating results in widespread destabilization from the central and northern High Plains eastward to the Upper and Middle Mississippi Valley area, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across a broad area. A weak cold front crossing the Dakotas will likely be a focus for development of isolated storms, a few of which could produce hail and locally strong wind gusts during the afternoon and early evening, before diminishing. A few storms are also expected to develop within upslope flow across southeastern Wyoming, and over the higher terrain of southeastern Colorado/northeastern Oklahoma. Some potential for hail/wind would exist with storms developing in either of these areas, with some increase in storm coverage expected overnight as a southerly low-level jet develops across the southern High Plains/western Kansas. Some CAM runs suggest upscale growth into one or more clusters, some of which sustain convection through the overnight hours, shifting the storms as far east as the Mid Mississippi Valley by the end of the period. However, these scenarios remain quite uncertain, hence the broad, low-probability/MRGL risk area. ..Goss.. 06/28/2023 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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